Gorilla Radio blog: Canada's Looming Commodity Jack-Knife

Sunday, March 09, 2014

Canada's Looming Commodity Jack-Knife

Canada's "commodity based" economy plunges into crisis

by David Ellis

As they furiously lobbied the government, the oilmen/farmers/loggers forgot, there are only 3 fragile railways through the steep B.C. Mts., and huge increases in production just cannot be brought through these mountains

Three major factors have now plunged the Conservative governments' super high risky, policy-foolish "commodity based" China-focussed Canadian trade economy, into crisis. The simple reality that was forgotten, is that there are only 3 fragile single-tracked railways through the four mountain ranges that must be crossed in B.C., where steep grades, and year round, continuous landslide/avalanches locations, will always endanger and limit the length of trains, especially in the long mountain winter.

AND SUDDENLY NOW:

a) Huge prairie Canola/etc. crops, that have been produced largely for the volume-based Chinese market, in volumes that the grain growing industry (see letter below) notes are the "new normal", and

b) Oilmen, particularly from the massive-volume 1/3 developed-to-date tar sands region, have increased the use the trains and offered higher prices to Canada's now New York stock-exchange driven railways, who hide behind the residual social policy-protection of the old government policies of the "railway act", that include no public disclosure of commodity volumes shipped, or dangerous goods deliveries

c) The forest industry is now "taking off" again as the U.S housing market, sees a huge re-start

d) Perhaps most profoundly for Canadian food industries, and individual families/consumers, is that what is also being disrupted is the entire "national food supply" (see the letter below from Gary Stanford, President, Grain Growers of Canada).

Conclusion: It is suddenly simply impossible for all of these commodities to reach the Pacific by train (or by highway) in the foolish volumes now being produced, let alone, in the volumes, already policy-planned for/projected. So an intense, never-seen-before inter-industry conflict is now developing, that will now greatly increase in intensity. In the short term I would give the prairie-family-farmer voting power the highest chance of success, but all of these industries will mostly probably be economic losers, in this display of quick profit taking, short-sighted, greed-alone-based rush for (impossible) resource wealth volumes.

The future of this is a National Crisis, of Canadian policy planned, and also of Canadian values.

Greed, must be separated from public policy but in fact the Conservatives have now fully merged public and private sector policy, as in oligarchic states such as Russia and China. Only a separation of these two policies, always a key in a democracy and especially in sparsely populated Canada, in a new political leadership, will lead the country out of this crisis.

The "new age" post-Harper Canadian economy must be based on reasonable annual yields/harvests from the living ecological resources, that require little investment but full and continuous environmental protection, as well as full service support of the massive retirement/service industry.

And much less mining/oil extraction, these are in the long term destructive/disruptive industries to the economy; reclamation must now become a "mainstay", and not a marginalized, part of the equation, if future generations are not the be burdened with the clean-up costs.

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Western Grain Elevator Association - Grain Growers of Canada

WGEA Western Grain Elevator Association
January 17, 2014

The Honourable Gerry Ritz, M.P.
Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food.

excerpts:

"Food manufacturers also rely on rail for the delivery of farmers’ crops to keep their processing facilities in operation. Rail service along the entire supply chain plays an important role ensuring that food is available on store shelves for Canadian consumers.

"Rail service is beginning to have an effect on the national food supply too as millers, food manufactures and maltsters are receiving unsatisfactory service and real shortages moving grain to plants and then to market.

"The availability of livestock feed in the Fraser Valley, British Columbia, is being affected, where they are running short of feed.